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Ohio River Spring Flood Outlook 'Above Normal'

Ohio River Spring Flood Outlook 'Above Normal'
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By National Weather Service
Feb. 15, 2018 | PADUCAH, KY
By National Weather Service Feb. 15, 2018 | 09:15 PM | PADUCAH, KY
The National Weather Service office in Paducah has issued its projections for the potential of flooding this spring, and the lower Ohio River valley's flood chances look to be above normal.

Rivers that feed the Ohio from Kentucky and Indiana are already running near flood stage in many cases, and a flood warning has already been issued this week for low-lying agricultural areas in McCracken, Massac, Ballard and Pulaski counties below the Shawneetown, Brookport and Grand Chain dams.

Forecasters say that a much more active and wetter weather pattern is setting up through the end of February. Storm systems could bring a chance of showers to the region every 3 to 4 days. Each of these could bring up to 2 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts.

The outlook for March through May is also for above normal precipitation across Kentucky.

By comparison, the flood potential for the Mississippi River above Cairo is estimated as average. Southeast Missouri has experienced mild drought conditions since last fall, and soil moisture levels there are much lower than in Kentucky. Missouri and southern Illinois rivers that feed the Mississippi are running below normal for this time of year.

The precipitation outlook for Missouri and southern Illinois is for average amounts of rain in March. The entire region's outlook through May so far looks to be above average.

The National Weather Service flood outlooks are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover and 30- to 90-day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
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