Mike York, the Winter Weather Program Leader and Forecaster, said, "El Nino will be a minor influence in our weather, and that leaves the door open to a wider range of possibilities. We're thinking we'll have a variable winter with arctic blasts interspersed with relatively milder temperatures, but we don't really have a clear signal as to the overall pattern this winter."
Jetton said when El Nino (a period warming of Pacific ocean temperatures) is stronger, winters are typically a bit warmer and dryer, and the opposite is true during a La Nina pattern (cooler ocean temperatures).
York elaborated a bit more on the season, saying a lot of our winters are really variable, where an average of the extreme temperatures appears "normal," but the lasting impression is different.
"Like in October it was in the 90s early in the month and then the 50s late in the month. It averaged out normal but it sure didn't seem normal. That's the kind of winter that we might have with some extremes that may average out near normal but we may be on a see-saw temperature pattern," he said.
As for snowfall, York said, "Normally we can count on at least near-normal snowfall when El Nino is weak, so we're not looking for this winter to be a breeze, by any stretch of the imagination."
He said normal snowfall for Paducah is 10-12 inches per winter, with places to the north averaging more than that, and locations further south can average as little as 7 inches.
