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10 hours ago

Any talk of snow, its location or amount is still a big question mark

The National Weather Service in Paducah is watching the potential for snow this weekend, but the amount or location is still very much a question mark.

They say the possibility that we just remain very cold and dry with no snow also remains a reasonable outcome. 

However, a healthy percentage of their early model guidance has been consistent with the signal of at least some snow. Those very early indications point toward some possibility of a more impactful snow occurring, with the odds of that generally highest over the southern half of the quad-state.

Here's an example of how wide-ranging the potential for weekend snow is so far. In Monday afternoon's foreast discussion, the Paducah meteorologists put western Kentucky's chance of a little snow (less than two inches) at 60 percent; the chance of at least two inches of snow at 30 to 40 percent; and the chance of 4 inches or more at 5 to 10 percent. They say the chance of no snow is 10 to 20 percent.

To emphasize the huge range of variables yet to come into focus, Monday's forecast discussion can be quoted, "different ripples (that) shake out of the upper air pattern in all of the guidance over the next 24-48 hours... could very well lead to remarkably different results down low." 

Hopefully, over the coming day or so model guidance will start to lock in on solutions, and the range of possible outcomes will narrow as to a range of amounts and locations.

In the meantime, wind chills tonight will be in the single digits through Tuesday morning, even as low as 5 below zero along the I-64 corridor toward Mt. Vernon, Illinois. 

Dry conditions are anticipated, with very low humidity levels that may lead to elevated wildfire concerns today and Tuesday. 
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